NASCAR Fantasy: Atlanta Picks

NASCAR rolls to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400, the second points-paying Cup race of the season. I'll provide you with my top picks in both the NASCAR Fantasy Live and NASCAR 36 for 36 survivor game formats to ensure your best chance at success.

General Notes about Daytona

It may be hard to believe, but this is the third year of racing on the re-configured Atlanta Motor Speedway, which features 28 degrees of banking in the turns. Reportedly, the track has seen significant wear over the winter, and Goodyear is allocating teams 9 total sets for the weekend. Historically, drivers have communicated how much handling plays a role on the reconfigured oval, and I would expect it to be even more paramount on Sunday. Considering Atlanta's narrow racing surfaces and the fact that we have seen multiple 2-time winners at the venue in the Next Gen era (William Byron and Joey Logano), I expect the race to be a little less chaotic overall than Daytona was last weekend.

NASCAR 36 for 36 (Survivor)

What the Stats Say

Let's take a look at the top eight full-time drivers at Atlanta in the Next Gen era, sorted by average finish.

Overall Strategy

Much like last week, I'm looking to choose drivers that I don't think have race-winning speed for 80% of the other races on the calendar. This will cut out teams like JGR or Hendrick.

Let's go over my top picks for the event, as well as some drivers to avoid.

1. Justin Haley (4th best track for Haley, by average finish)

After having an interesting season in 2024, where he swapped rides with Corey Lajoie in the No. 51 RWR Ford, Haley has returned to Spire Motorsports, albeit in the No. 7 Chevrolet. It's hard for me to gauge how much Spire has improved over the offseason--especially considering how strong they were at the end of 2024--but I think Haley is a good pick here. I'm not a fan of how little I expect him to score in stage points, as he has only notched 4 in the Next Gen era, but I think he has a good chance to finish in the top 20, and maybe even the top 15, which I would consider to be a win considering his unknown upside at more normal tracks. Crew chief Rodney Childers has been known to make some bold calls in the past, and I think he could be a good pick for the race if it comes down to a late-race caution (and restart).

2. Austin Cindric (6th best track for Cindric, by average finish)

It may sound odd to pick Cindric here, but he has been quite strong at Atlanta, scoring 59 stage points over 6 races, as well as leading 146 laps. I feel a little more inclined to pick him at Gateway, but I feel like the No.2 team clearly has the speed to be up front at these drafting tracks--remember, one of his two Cup wins is the Daytona 500, albeit in 2021 in the Gen 6 era.

3. Daniel Suarez (2nd best average finish at Atlanta in Next Gen era)

Even if you don't throw in the win that Suarez had in the famous three-wide finish last year, he would still have 4 other top-ten finishes to his name at the track, his lone non-top-10 finish being a 29th in the 2023 spring race. Much like how I'm grading other teams this early in the year, both Chastain and Suarez lacked some speed last year, and Suarez seems to have some sort of intuition to know how to get around Atlanta Motor Speedway, which is why I'm picking him here. Unlike Cindric, Suarez only has led 31 laps in the 6 previous races, but if it plays out like a typical superspeedway does these days, do we really care?

Drivers to Avoid

Denny Hamlin (Avg Finish: 20.2 in last 6 starts, 1 top 10)

Denny Hamlin was reportedly quite upset at the way superspeedway racing as evolved in current-day NASCAR on his podcast, Actions Detrimental, where he argued that drivers are making low-percentage moves that end up taking out much of the field. Hamlin hasn't had any success at Atlanta, especially by his standards, where his best finish was 6th in the 2023 spring iteration of the event. Much like the driver below, I feel much safer leaving Hamlin on the bench and using him at tracks where he has a better chance to win.

Kyle Larson (2nd-worst average finish of all active drivers at Atlanta)

Much like last week, Larson is known for not having success on speedways--and that translates to Atlanta Motor Speedway as well, where he hasn't been able to score a top-10 in six starts.

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks

Now let's go over my picks for NASCAR Fantasy Live.

1. Daniel Suarez

I don't feel like I'm going to use up all my Suarez uses in the regular season, and this race seems like the perfect time to use him. He is currently has an average finish of 1.66 in the last three races (2 second-place finishes and a win), and I think he has a good chance to finish in the top 10, if not the top 5.

2. Austin Cindric

Along with his 2 top-5 finishes and 3 top-10 finishes, Cindric has led 146 laps in the Next Gen era at Atlanta, which immediately makes him valuable to pick up stage points, which are hard to come by at superspeedways.

3. Ryan Blaney

Blaney has the best average finish at Atlanta in the Next Gen era, and he has been able to lead 106 laps. If he and Cindric can link up (or even Logano too), I think they have a good chance to finish in the top 10.

4. Todd Gilliland

I know Gilliand isn't even on my top 8 average finishers list, but FRM always seems to bring speed to superspeedways, and he was able to lead 58 laps in the 2024 spring race. Seeing as he is now the number-1 man at Front Row, I would expect him, along with Gragson and Zane Smith, to work in tandem to get to the front for most of the day.

5. Kyle Busch

For whatever reason, Kyle Busch seems to have a good handle on the Next Gen car at superspeedways. He has had 2 top-5 finishes and 4 top-10 finishes in Next Gen competition--and again, I don't really see him as a driver where I may use up all my uses in the regular season.

Garage Driver: A.J. Allmendinger

Allmendinger is quite an odd case here at the track, where he only has 2 starts in the Next Gen era. I assume that Kaulig is going to attempt to take full advantage of going for it all, as if 2024 is any indication, they aren't going to have race-winning pace at most tracks which aren't road or street courses, which are Allmendinger's bread and butter. This is a pick with little to no risk for me, as there isn't enough road courses in the regular season to exceed my 10-race limit on him.